If you consider yourself a long-term investor and you find yourself with capital to invest, this might be the opportunity to do so.

For clients who last year, followed my lead and bought the price dips in technology driven companies, were all fortunate to experience investment returns reaching as high as 91%. I can assure you that I was just as happy as you were to see your holdings flourish in 2020 especially since each portfolio was personalized according to your needs and risk tolerance. However, just like great sports teams who win champions, my attitude on a go forward basis is that 2021 is new season.

Before I continue, keep in mind that past performance does not necessarily predict future results. I am confident you all know this already so when it comes to investing, the results certainly are not linear. So please, make sure you do not forget this point. In addition to past performance, buying stocks or securities involves risk which can lead to investors losing all or a portion of their investment triggered by various reasons or market conditions. Under no circumstances should any individual ever buy investments based on past performance or without knowing the risks involved first. Not today, not ever.

I also want to point out the securities selection process is one of many steps involved when building an investment portfolio. Even if you skip the research process and go straight to buying a predetermined list of securities, having no investment framework is not going to help you in the long run. Other important factors include trends, consumer adaptation, perception vs. reality, competition, and market share. Then you have tactical decisions such as investing 100% of your capital in one execution or holding a cash position and deploying ad hoc buys based on price fluctuations caused by uncertainty. There are much more to consider including a discussion on asset allocation theories but I think you get the point.

The Exposure to Criticism

I believe by name dropping specific businesses I like and follow, I could be opening myself up to unnecessary criticism from clients, industry peers and colleagues especially if these businesses do not reach the growth potential I have in mind. Conversely, if these businesses meet my expectations, am I simply giving away the secret sauce? Since I published this week’s article, it is obvious that I am confident to expose myself to unnecessary criticism and I am certainly not worried about providing a list of securities that could drive clients to discount brokerage channels. You all know me well, I’m just not built that way.

The 1-Yr Client & Advisor Project

Our project is simple. I am going to provide you with a list of companies and my price expectation of what I believe the stock price will be on April 8th, 2022 which is one year away from today. When you see a number next to each company, this is the share price I believe each stock or business will be worth on April 8th, 2022. There is really nothing else to do except to see the degree of variance between my price prediction and the actual stock price in a year.

The companies involved in our project are the following: Amazon – $4,120, Microsoft – $365, Facebook – $445, Snap Inc – $123, Apple – $189, Disney – $309, Uber – $105, Tesla – $1,050, JP Morgan Chase – $202, Air Canada – $43, Bank of Montreal – $146, TD – $110, LightSpeed POS – $165, Affirm Holdings Inc – $189, Bitcoin – $117,000 USD, Ethereum – $5,900 USD, Berkshire Hathaway – $308 and Lululemon – $379.

What is this week’s takeaway?

First, I believe 2021 is going to be a great year for stocks. Second, never, ever buy investments based on past performance or not understanding the risks involved with your investment. Speak to a professional first before investing. Third, I embrace potential criticism from my clients, colleagues, and peers on my price predications. Fourth, I am a long-term investor and therefore I spread my risk of owning these securities over many years. I do not day trade these businesses. Lastly, no individual or firm can successfully predict stock prices so this exercise is simply for fun.

I will provide periodic updates on these securities however if you want to track our target price versus the daily price on your own – go for it!

Be well and have a great weekend!

Talk soon,

Michael Zagari